Retired Adm. James Stavridis on Friday estimated that Israel’s attacks on Tehran will have a “significant” impact on Iran, knocking 50% of its military capability, as he identified the main reason the country has yet to use one of the strongest tools at its disposal to respond.
In an interview with “CNN News Central,” Stavridis said Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile sites mirrored Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web, which saw Kyiv launch over 100 drones to attack air bases deep inside Russia earlier this month.
“This is Israel with deep penetration into a huge country. Iran is two and a half times the size of Texas,” Stavridis explained.
The CNN military analyst predicted Israel’s operation will have a major impact on Iran.
“As we are hearing, it’s only the beginning. So I’d look for five to seven days,” he said. “And that … I think, will knock the Iranian military back 50% in its capability overall. That’s quite significant.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed the operation “will continue for as many days as it takes,” while Iran has pledged to retaliate.
Stavridis warned that despite the setbacks Tehran faces, it still has options to mount a major response, albeit “asymmetrically.”
“Rather than launching jets to do a mirror of the strikes they’re experiencing, they’ll use different means,” he said. “They still have thousands of ballistic missiles that can reach out and hit Israel. A launch of 500 of those simultaneously potentially could overwhelm Israeli defense facilities. They could use cyber. They could use terror attacks, targeted assassinations.”
Iran could also close the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would send “shivers up the back of the global economy,” according to Stavridis.
“They couldn’t keep it closed for more than a month or two,” he added. “But that’s a huge spike in energy prices. Iran still has options here.”
The move could disrupt the stream of global oil as over 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum liquids are transported per day through the strait, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
Iran has yet to resort to those options, including its ballistic missile capability, over fear of drawing the U.S. into the escalating tensions, Stavridis assessed.
“Yes, the Israelis can do a lot of damage to the broad military-industrial complex, but there are still many deeply buried, hardened targets, particularly their nuclear facilities, that can only be truly destroyed by the U.S.,” Stavridis added.
President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Bret Baier that Friday’s attacks did not come as a surprise to the U.S., suggesting he had advance knowledge of Israel’s plans.
He later told CNN’s Dana Bash he is on Israel’s side, while urging Tehran to agree to a nuclear deal with the U.S.
“We of course support Israel, obviously and supported it like nobody has ever supported it,” Trump said.
